College football best bets include Ohio State over Notre Dame

September 02, 2024

You will usually find me making NFL picks for The Post, and that pursuit has been going so well — 5-0 during the first two weeks of the season — that my editors asked me to also provide some college football picks to our readers. Just kidding. Matt Bonesteel, your regular guide to betting on college football, is on vacation, so I am filling in. I was serious about being 5-0 to start the NFL season. Not that I am keeping track.

Admittedly, I am more of a numbers guy than Bonesteel, relying on them extensively when making wagers, but I am keeping the overall structure of his approach with four picks this week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which features a team on a wild ride this season.

The game of the week

No. 6 Ohio State (-3) at No. 9 Notre Dame

Pick: Ohio State -3

Ohio State’s offense, constructed by offensive coordinator Brian Hartline and Coach Ryan Day, is one of the nation’s most efficient units. While the Buckeyes initially struggled against Indiana (23 points), the offense has only gotten better since, scoring 35 points against Youngstown State and 63 against Western Kentucky. After adjusting their margin of victory for strength of schedule, the Buckeyes have the 10th-best offense in the country, one that is 20.1 points per game better than an average team. They are No. 1 in analyst Brian Fremeau’s efficiency rating (plus-1.2), which is opponent-adjusted and represents the scoring advantage per possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. In those same metrics, Notre Dame ranks 15th (17.0) and 11th (plus-0.8), respectively.

Ohio State’s roster also boasts a trio of capable running backs — TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams — plus a receiving corps loaded with top-tier talent, featuring two probable first-round picks in Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. This allows the Buckeyes to excel at creating explosive passing plays, and they already have 17 plays of 20 or more yards in three games. This offensive strength is likely to work in their favor against Notre Dame, which has been susceptible to big plays. Notre Dame allows opposing drives to average seven yards or more per play 21 percent of the time (35th in the country); Ohio State allows such drives only 11 percent of the time (11th).

Notre Dame, meanwhile, isn’t as explosive on offense, averaging seven yards per play or more 40 percent of the time (28th). Ohio State has averaged that many yards per play per drive more than half the time (56 percent, ranking sixth) this season.

The favorite

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (-4)

Pick: Wake Forest -4

This line has moved considerably since it opened with Wake Forest as an eight-point favorite, yet the steam toward the underdog seems overblown. The Demon Deacons rank 50th in adjusted efficiency, with the No. 31 offense and No. 64 defense. Georgia Tech is ranked 86th for adjusted efficiency, with the 65th offense and 81st defense. Fremeau’s projection for the game is 32-21 in favor of Wake Forest. That’s a similar projection to the one offered by analyst Ken Massey’s site (35-24).

Maybe part of the concern is that Wake Forest sophomore quarterback Mitch Griffis will make his first start in an ACC game. He has completed 62 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Those interceptions have been costly, and include a pick-six against Old Dominion, yet Coach Dave Clawson stuck with Griffis, who helped orchestrate a 27-24 comeback win over the Monarchs despite an 11-point deficit to start the fourth quarter.

The underdog

Tulsa (+4) at Northern Illinois

Pick: Tulsa +4

It’s unusual to see a superior team installed as the underdog, but that does happen sometimes. Yes, I know Tulsa comes into this matchup on a two-game skid, outscored 109 to 27 in those contests — which were both against ranked powers — but the Golden Hurricane is actually ranked higher than Northern Illinois this season. According to the average rank of 53 rating systems, Tulsa is the 100th-best team in the country and Northern Illinois is 120th. Using those ratings, Tulsa figures to win 59 percent of the time in a head-to-head meeting, by an average score of 31-27.

I get it, seeing Tulsa use three quarterbacks in three games isn’t ideal. Braylon Braxton started the season opener and was replaced by Cardell Williams after suffering an injury in the first half vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Williams started against No. 8 Washington and then Roman Fuller got the start against No. 19 Oklahoma. But Williams and Fuller have combined to complete 67 percent of their passes for 615 yards and seven touchdowns. That’s not bad (although their six interceptions are a problem.)

Ultimately, the key for Tulsa could be fifth-year senior safety Kendarin Ray. Ray leads both the Tulsa defense and the American Athletic Conference with 28 total tackles in three games. In his career, Ray already has 13 pass breakups, eight tackles for loss, four forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries and an interception. With the potential of a double-digit tackle game and a knack for disrupting opponents, Ray’s playmaking ability should be the difference on Saturday.

At the very least, this should be considered a coin flip, so take the points.

The wild card

No. 15 Mississippi (+7) at No. 13 Alabama

Pick: Mississippi +7

Alabama is struggling. The Crimson Tide suffered its first home loss since 2019 against Texas in Week 2 and then narrowly won last week against South Florida, 17-3, despite being 34½-point favorites. Their quarterback situation is also messy. Jalen Milroe, who started in the season opener against Middle Tennessee and the loss to Texas the following week, was benched against the Bulls and replaced by Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner and then freshman Ty Simpson. Coach Nick Saban reinstated Milroe for this game against Ole Miss, yet you have to wonder how much room for error he will have in Alabama’s SEC opener.

Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin, meanwhile, has the No. 15 Rebels a perfect 3-0, scoring 52.7 points per game while surrendering 16.7. Ole Miss is also averaging nearly double the net yards per play (2.0) on drives than Alabama (1.2) thus far. Take the points.

ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMCxu9GtqmhqYGeAcHyYaGlqZ56kwbOxjJ2Ypp1dpLWqu4ysq5qslWK8pbDSZpmeq6Rir6bA0maunp2bYoFw